Leaders need to understand the signs of unrest in a society, much like a sailor predicts storms by observing nature. Social upheavals are most intense when power and wealth begin to balance out, just as natural storms peak around the equinox. Similarly, just as the sea swells and winds blow before a storm, societies often give warning signs of trouble. For example, when people openly criticize the government through pamphlets, gossip, or false news, this indicates potential problems. Virgil, the Roman poet, describes “Fame” as the sister of giants, born from chaos and anger against the gods. This implies that rumors often arise from past conflicts and hint at future ones. Virgil’s idea captures the truth: rumors and rebellions are connected, like siblings.
Tacitus, the Roman historian, observed that when even the best actions of a government are misinterpreted or mocked, it’s a sign of deep envy or dissatisfaction. He wisely said, “When envy is strong, even good actions are criticized.” However, trying to suppress rumors too harshly can backfire; ignoring them often works better. Attempting to silence them may only make them spread more, like trying to put out a fire with oil. Tacitus also warns against a dangerous form of compliance, where people follow orders but prefer to debate and interpret them rather than act. This subtle disobedience undermines authority. If those who oppose a decision speak boldly while supporters remain cautious, it shows the beginnings of rebellion.
Machiavelli, the political thinker, observed that rulers who take sides in conflicts rather than staying neutral weaken their position, like a boat tipping over when unevenly loaded. This was evident during Henry III of France’s reign when his alliance against Protestants turned against him. A ruler’s power should never depend on factions or external loyalties, as it leaves them vulnerable. When disagreements and rivalries are publicly aired without fear, it’s clear that respect for authority has diminished. In stable governance, leaders should act like celestial bodies, moving smoothly and steadily. But when prominent figures act recklessly, as Tacitus notes, it disrupts the system, signaling chaos. When key pillars of governance—religion, justice, counsel, and finances—are weakened, trouble looms. If these fail, people should pray for stability. Next, let us consider the causes, triggers, and solutions for rebellion.
The root causes of rebellion are poverty and widespread dissatisfaction. Poverty creates fertile ground for unrest, as Lucan, a Roman poet, observed: “Greedy interest, unstable credit, and war that benefits the few are signs of a crumbling state.” When the poor are hungry and the wealthy feel threatened, rebellion becomes almost inevitable. The worst uprisings come from basic needs—”the rebellions of the belly” are the hardest to suppress. Dissatisfaction is like an infection in a body. It may grow slowly but can eventually cause a fever. Leaders should not assume that people’s grievances are rational or fair. Fear often drives discontent more than real hardship, as the saying goes: “Pain has limits, but fear does not.” Oppression may exhaust people into submission, but fear stirs action. Never underestimate long-standing grievances; just because they haven’t caused problems yet doesn’t mean they won’t.
The sparks that ignite rebellion include changes in religion, taxes, laws, or traditions; perceived injustice; favoritism toward outsiders or unworthy individuals; economic hardship; and unemployed soldiers. Any issue that unites people in anger poses a threat. The best way to prevent rebellion is to address its root causes—poverty and inequality. This requires encouraging trade, supporting industries, combating idleness, limiting excessive spending, improving agriculture, stabilizing prices, and easing taxes. Population growth must also align with the economy’s ability to support it. A small number of wealthy elites or an oversized clergy, which does not contribute economically, can destabilize a society.
For a nation to prosper, it must focus on external trade, producing goods, and managing transportation. As Bacon notes, “The work can surpass the material,” meaning industries and trade often generate more wealth than raw resources. The Dutch, for example, have enriched their country through trade and manufacturing, not natural resources. Wealth should not concentrate in a few hands. Money, like manure, only works when it’s spread around. This requires regulating exploitative practices, like usury or hoarding land for grazing, which undermine economic stability.
To reduce dissatisfaction, rulers must manage two groups: the nobles and the common people. When only one group is unhappy, the risk is low. Nobles lack strength without popular support, and the masses are slow to act unless led by the elite. The real danger comes when both groups align in discontent. The myth of Jupiter and Briareus, a giant with a hundred hands, symbolizes the importance of leaders securing the support of the common people to counter elite threats. Allowing minor grievances to be expressed openly is wise, as suppressing them forces resentment to fester. Governments should offer hope, even in tough times, because hope is a powerful tool against rebellion. When satisfaction is impossible, leaders can still inspire loyalty through well-crafted promises.
Discontented individuals often rally around a charismatic leader. Such figures must either be reconciled with the government or opposed by equally influential rivals to divide their support. Dividing factions and creating distrust within opposition groups is an effective strategy. However, unity among the government’s allies is just as crucial. History shows that careless words from rulers can spark rebellion. Julius Caesar’s comment about Sulla being illiterate implied he would never give up power, discouraging his supporters. Short, thoughtless remarks can travel quickly and reveal unintended truths about a leader’s intentions. Rulers must guard their words carefully, especially during sensitive times.
Finally, rulers should always have reliable military leaders to suppress rebellions early. Without this, governments risk chaos, as Tacitus described: “A few dare, more wish for it, and everyone allows it.” These military figures must be loyal and respected, not divisive or overly ambitious, or they may create more problems than they solve.
Bacon Blueprint 