Solomon once said, “There is no new thing under the sun.” Plato imagined that all knowledge is simply recollection, and Solomon extended this thought by saying that all novelty comes from forgetting. This reminds us that the river of Lethe—symbolic of forgetfulness—flows both above ground, in the lives of men, and below, in the underworld. An astrologer once suggested that without two constants—the fixed stars maintaining their positions and the steady turning of the earth—nothing would last even for a moment. This aligns with the idea that everything is always in flux, never truly still.
Two major forces that erase memory are floods and earthquakes. While fires and droughts cause destruction, they don’t wipe out populations entirely. Phaeton’s mythic chariot caused devastation for a single day, and the three-year drought during Elijah’s time still left survivors. The great fires caused by lightning in the West Indies are similarly narrow in scope. In contrast, floods and earthquakes often leave behind only small, isolated groups of people who live in remote, mountainous areas. These survivors typically lose all knowledge of the past, as if history itself had been erased.
If we consider the people of the West Indies, it’s likely they are newer to the world compared to the populations of Europe, Asia, and Africa. The destruction in their lands was probably caused by a great flood rather than earthquakes, which are rare in that region. Their vast rivers make the rivers of the Old World seem like mere streams, and their Andes mountains are far taller than those of Europe. This suggests that a flood spared only those living high in the mountains.
Machiavelli once claimed that religious factions often erase history. He criticised Pope Gregory the Great for trying to destroy records of pagan antiquities. However, such efforts rarely succeed or last long, as shown by Pope Sabinian, Gregory’s successor, who restored these records. Jealousy between sects may suppress memory temporarily, but it does not extinguish it entirely.
On Religion and Revolutions
The most significant changes among men arise from shifts in religion, for beliefs hold great power over the human mind. True religion stands firm, but all others are at the mercy of time and upheaval. When religion becomes divided by discord, its leaders fall into scandal, and the times are marked by ignorance and barbarity, it is ripe for a new sect to emerge. Add to this a charismatic leader, as was the case with Mohammed, and a new movement can easily take root.
A new sect is unlikely to spread unless it has two qualities: first, it must challenge existing authority, as nothing appeals to the masses more than rebellion; second, it must offer indulgences or a life of ease and pleasure. Intellectual heresies, like those of the Arians or Arminians, may captivate clever minds but rarely cause large societal changes unless combined with political unrest.
New sects can emerge in three ways: through miracles, persuasive speech, or force. Martyrdom can act as a miracle, seeming to exceed human strength. Exceptional holiness can also inspire change. The best way to prevent the rise of dangerous new sects is to address abuses, settle minor disputes, and avoid harsh persecution. It is wiser to win over influential leaders through kindness and rewards than to provoke them through violence.
On War and its Transformations
War changes in three key areas: its locations, its weapons, and its strategies. In ancient times, wars often moved from east to west. Persians, Arabs, and Tartars—all invaders—came from the east. The Gauls, exceptions to this trend, invaded only twice, targeting Greece and Rome. North and south, however, have more fixed patterns: northern peoples rarely face invasion from the south but often invade the south themselves. This suggests that colder northern climates produce tougher, more warlike people, while the warmer south is less martial, being mostly sea or sparsely populated.
The collapse of great empires often leads to war. Large empires weaken the military strength of their conquered peoples, relying instead on their own central forces. When these fail, everything falls apart. This happened to Rome and, later, the empire of Charlemagne. Similarly, when kingdoms grow too powerful, they provoke conflict, like a flood spilling over its banks. Overpopulation also causes wars, as nations with more people than they can sustain will inevitably seek new lands.
As states grow wealthy and complacent, they become targets. Their wealth attracts invaders, and their loss of discipline makes them vulnerable. Weapons evolve too, often returning in cycles. Gunpowder, for instance, was known in ancient India and has been used in China for over two thousand years. Effective weapons are those that strike from a distance, are powerful on impact, and are practical in all conditions.
Military tactics have also changed. In earlier times, armies relied on sheer numbers and brute strength, arranging battles like duels. Later, strategy, positioning, and deception became more important. A state’s youth is marked by strength in arms, its middle age by learning, and its decline by trade and mechanical innovation.
On Reflection and Balance
Learning, like all things, has its phases: a childish beginning, a youthful excess, a mature strength, and an old age marked by decline. Observing the cycles of change too closely can leave us dizzy. It’s better to focus on what can be learned and applied, rather than chasing endless stories and speculation about the past.
Bacon Blueprint 